The Big Shift and the Imperative of 21st Century Globalism
Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman, World Economic Forum
Good morning. It is my great personal pleasure and special honour to welcome President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono to Davos and it’s actually not the first time; we had the pleasure to welcome you already 11 years ago in your capacity of minister, but for the first time as the President of your country. You’re not only the president of Indonesia; you are the fifth ASEAN Chair and it has become a tradition of ASEAN Chairs to join us here in Davos, to launch the ASEAN agenda. Not only are you head of state of a major G20 economy, the largest in South-East Asia, and the ASEAN Chair for 2011, but you are also the host of the 20th anniversary World Economic Forum on East Asia, which will take place from the 12-13 of June 2011 in Jakarta.
Mr President, in July 2009 you became actually the first Indonesian President ever re-elected, winning a landslide capturing over 60% of the vote, as more than 120 million cast ballots across the country. It shows the democratic strengths of Indonesia and a country which emerged from three decades of military rule barely 10 years ago. This is clearly a testament of the confidence of the Indonesian people into your leadership. Not only are you highly regarded for openly tackling corruption and graft in Indonesia, but your policies include a very explicit approach to ensuring a word which we use so often here during this meeting, inclusive growth, so you’re pro and I quote, pro-growth, pro-poor, pro-employment platform. This is more impressive considering that Indonesia is the third-fastest growing Asian G20 economy after India and China, the world’s fourth most populous nation, the world’s largest Muslim democracy and it says here in our Competitiveness Report 2010/2011, Indonesia boasts an impressive gain of 10 places, I think it’s one of the highest gains from 54 in the previous year to 44 this year.
I know, Mr President, you are arriving to Davos directly from New Delhi, having been a special guest for India’s Republic Day. It was a very successful visit, I hear from our Indian friends, and I’m very honoured that you can join us, so please welcome warmly the Indonesian President Yudhoyono.
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, President of Indonesia; Chair, 2011 ASEAN
Thank you, Professor Klaus Schwab, for your generous and kind introduction. The World Economic Forum of course was never intended to be a policy-making forum nor a place for negotiations, but under your able leadership, Professor Schwab, Davos has become an inspirational meeting point for world leaders and the business sectors and others to connect and share ideas and initiatives. Thank you all for being here today and for the warm welcome. I feel very much at home, even though my definition of home is usually 86 degrees Fahrenheit and lots of coconut trees under the sun sign. Of course there will be plenty of that at the World Economic Forum East Asia, which we’ll be helping to cover, a remarkable Indonesia on June 12 to the 13 this year, which you are all invited to.
We meet today at a time of continuing uncertainty for the global economy. We have managed to avoid a global depression and achieve some recovery, but it remains sluggish and uneven. There are continuing concerns about the post-crisis situation, whether in dealing with the European sovereign debt issue, winding down deficit, restructuring of the financial sector and job creation. This in turn increased domestic tensions which can potentially lead to protectionists and inward-looking methods. Thus we have some distance to go and much to do to reach our common objective of strong, sustainable and balanced growth. More recently we have experienced rising food and oil prices. In fact, the FAO has predicted that in general food prices have reached 2008 levels and could still go up. High food prices impact on inflation but also on poverty and hunger, which can lead to social and political unrest. In the medium and long-term, we should be prepared for the growing world population. The world population is already approaching 7 billion this year and it will go to 9 billion by 2045. Over half are in Asia. Imagine the pressure on food, energy, water and resources. The next economic war or conflict can be over the race for scarce resources if we don’t manage it together. What is certain about the world is that it is undergoing major shifts; this new reality consists of many layers of strategic shifts.
The first shift is the rise of emerging economies in many parts of the world. The recent global financial crisis was not only symptomatic of the structural issues faced by the developed world, but also reflective of the growing strength of the emerging economies. Whatever you call them – BRICs, N11 or E7 – emerging markets and developing countries already account for over half of the world economy and its growth. Many of the emerging economies are in Asia; by one estimation, Asia will account for 45% of the world total GDP and one third of world trade by the end of this decade. I will let the pundits debate whether we are on the threshold of an Asian century. Whatever you call it, one thing is indisputable: Asia is undergoing rapid and strong economic, social, cultural and strategic resurgence, the sums of which is certain to redefine global offence. Asia is of course more than China, Japan and India. When you think of Asia, also think Indonesia and ASEAN. Indonesia is the world’s third largest democracy, the largest economy in South-East Asia, a key growth area in the world economy and soon we will have one of the largest productive workforces in Asia. Indonesia will feature prominently in Asia’s ascent, but enough with that advertisement.
The second important shift is the arena of international peace and security. Even with economic growth, citizens cannot have real happiness and genuine welfare if conflicts and insecurity prevail. The good news is that relations between the major powers are now marked by rare conditions of peace and cooperation. However, this should not be taken for granted. Old conflicts and flashpoints still persist. More importantly, non-traditional security traits will gain centre stage. Diseases: tuberculosis and malaria combined have claimed more lives than the two world wars. Natural disasters, which caused 300,000 deaths last year and losses of over US$ 100 billion and affected over 200 million people worldwide. The bomb at the Russian airport three days ago reminded us that terrorism will continue to harm us. Extremism and intolerance is also on the rise. Dealing with all these new types of threat will require all of us to adjust our security mindset.
The third shift is driven by climate change. Over the next several decades the world community will need to collectively move away from a high-carbon economy to a low-carbon development path. This will involve much more than a matter of striking a deal on global climate treaty. This will involve a paradigm shift and a radical change out of reason in how we live our life, how we work, how we spend our finite resources and how we pursue governance and corporate policies. All in all, it will be a very complex transition but it will be the first truly global cooperation to address a common threat.
The big question is how we can all cope with the new reality of global shift and challenges and whether there is a global solution. Well, I would like to argue that what we need is a 21st century globalism. The 21st century globalism that we seek should do away with dogmatism. To respond to these challenges, nations, corporations and individuals have to be open-minded, pragmatic, adaptive and innovative. In the new reality, no single power can shift the world order alone. To resolve the issue of our time, nations must come to common terms and find shared norms. The concerted effort by G20 countries to avert the great depression in 2008 and 2009 attached to this. In the emerging 21st century international system, regional groupings must play a strategic role and responsibility.
First, regional organizations can take the lead in resolving problems in their own backyard. The debt crisis in the European Union, for example, or the public health issue in the African Union. The rise of Asia also means that Asian nations must be the chief makers in their own region. Secondly, regional groupings can also serve as building blocks for global growth and also for more collective global governing. This is true whether we are embarking on a global climate treaty, the successful conclusion of the WT or Doha Round in 2011 or in a nuclear weapon-free world. Simply put, without dynamic regionalism growing in all parts of the world there can be no globalism. This is why a key thing for ASEAN, which Indonesia has the honour to chair this year, is the ASEAN community and the global community of nations. It will be a chance for ASEAN to chart a long-term view of how a 21st century ASEAN community will continue to transform Southeast Asia and help save the East Asia regional architecture and global order in the 21st century. Essentially, we are talking about global partnership. I strongly believe that in the 21st century partnership networks will play a more important role than an alliance system. This is because partnerships are easier to form; they can be reached through agreements crafted to be win-win, with built-in flexibilities to account for differences. You can only have alliances to withstand enemies, but you can have partnerships for everything, which is why in the 21st century while the number of countries engaging in diplomatic partnership will continue to rise dramatically.
Thus whether you are a politician, diplomat or CEO, leadership in the 21st century is the ability to build the right partnership, to effectively meet these daunting challenges. As we gather to exchange ideas here in Davos, it is important for us to have fine solutions to global economic problems. Let me suggest a few. Surely as discussed in the G20, we will need to work together to overcome global imbalances. There is also a need to accelerate progress in the financial sector and IFE reforms before the next crisis hits us. This is why it is important for G20 countries to implement the commitment made in previous summits. As with other emerging economies, we underline also the importance of the global financial shift in there, a second line of defence, to anticipate and make us resilient towards future shocks. Finally for all of us in the developing world, not just G20 members, we need to deliver on inclusive growth and this means implementation of the multiyear action plan on development. Indonesia would prioritise financial inclusion, social safety net and aid for trade as the key development issue in the G20. Indonesia also fully supports the prioritisation of food security in the G20 agenda. In many of these areas, be it financial cooperation, agricultural cooperation, inclusiveness and equitable growth, there are concrete regional cooperative programmes in ASEAN and East Asia that can support the global agenda.
Finally, we will need to work together to manage the world economy so that it functions to meet our needs, rather than satisfying our greed. This means we will need to inject more compassion into our economic and social policy, that is not only fixated on growth but on achieving growth with equity and which promotes a caring and sharing society. This is a central philosophy of Indonesia’s national development. For developing countries, a compassionate approach also means taking a development path that is driven by good governance with zero tolerance of corruption. We will need to work together to develop and share the technological innovation that will enable us to turn problems of scarcity and climate change into new opportunities. We will need plenty of political will and creative collaboration to promote food and energy security for all and we will need to work together to adapt our lifestyle and our national policies towards a green global economy, based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. It is in this spirit that we in Indonesia have adopted a development strategy with this pro-growth, pro-job, pro-poor and pro-environment.
As the world community addresses the new reality, it is time that we move on from the mood of hostility and mistrust, which recently has characterized the relation between the state and corporations. In the developing world also, we need to leave behind the age-old schisms between the corporations and mass. There is plenty for all of us to gain if we embrace a creative, flexible and mutually beneficial approach. Peter Drucker once said, ‘The best way to predict the future is to create it.’ He is right. The big shift is upon us but our common destiny is yet to be written. Let us work together to ensure that our future will be infinitely better than the past and the present. I thank you.
sumber: http://www.weforum.org
diunggah oleh gunawan sunendar
